Volatility Conundrum: Why Waiting for Clarity Is the Worst Strategy

Businesses that win are the ones that keep moving in the fog of uncertainty

Something remarkable happened in late 2024: after 34 straight months of pessimism, small business optimism finally broke through. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index hit 105.1 in December—the highest reading in six years. Business owners who had been holding their breath for nearly three years suddenly felt like they could move forward again.

Then reality hit. Tariff announcements. Policy uncertainty. Supply chain questions. By March 2025, optimism had crashed back below its 51-year average. The NFIB called it "uncertainty whiplash"—and it's an apt description for what small business owners have experienced over the past year.

But here's what makes this interesting: while sentiment was whipsawing wildly, actual business performance stayed relatively solid. Small business sales were up 4.9% year-over-year. Forty percent of businesses grew revenue. Profitability remained resilient. The businesses that kept moving forward during the volatility actually did fine. The ones that froze, waiting for clarity that never came, paid a real price.

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Economic Trends Survey, 2024-2025

When uncertainty spikes, the instinct is to pause. Wait for more information. Let things settle. See how the tariffs shake out. Get clarity on policy. It's the sensible, prudent thing to do.

Except data shows this is exactly when many business owners make a costly mistake. In December 2024, 20% of small business owners said it was a good time to expand their business—the highest reading since June 2021. Two months later, that number had collapsed to 12%, marking the largest monthly drop since the early days of the pandemic.

A year later, in November 2025, it's still just 13%—a "historically weak reading" according to NFIB. Business owners are still waiting for the right moment. But the right moment isn't coming.

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Economic Trends Survey, 2024-2025

Think about what "waiting" actually means in practice. It means delaying the warehouse expansion you've needed for 18 months. Not hiring the two people who could take work off your plate. Passing on the equipment upgrade that would improve margins. Watching competitors move into spaces you've been "planning" to enter.

Meanwhile, despite all the volatility in sentiment, 74% of small businesses expect revenue increases in the next year. Sixty-five percent are profitable. The economy didn't collapse. Business kept happening. The owners who kept moving captured opportunity. The ones who waited paid an opportunity cost that compounded month after month.

Why Big Business Has to Wait (But You Don't)

Here's the crucial difference: when large companies face uncertainty, waiting is often their only option. They need board approvals. They have to answer to analysts. They have global supply chains that take months to untangle. They make decisions based on forecasts and models and scenario planning.

Small businesses have something fundamentally different: direct access to real information, right now.

You don't need to wait for macro data or policy clarity. You can pick up the phone today and call your top 20 customers. You can ask them directly: "If my prices go up 10%, what happens? If I can't source this product, what's your second choice? What are you planning for next quarter?" Within a week, you'll know more about your market than any economist watching GDP numbers.

This is the Proximity advantage in action—and it becomes more valuable during uncertainty, not less.

The Underdog Strategy for Volatile Times

Use proximity to gather intelligence fast. Big competitors are running surveys and analyzing trends. You can have 20 conversations this week and know exactly what your customers need, what they'll pay for, and what they're worried about. That intelligence lets you make decisions while everyone else is still "gathering data."

Double down on positioning that's shock-resistant. Whatever makes you different from big competitors—relationships, customization, speed, local expertise—invest more in that during uncertainty. These advantages can't be copied quickly, no matter what happens with tariffs or policy. While big businesses are paralyzed by volatility, your differentiation becomes even more valuable.

Let purpose guide decisions when data is murky. When you can't forecast perfectly (and you can't), your mission becomes your compass. Do you exist to serve these customers? Then find a way to keep serving them, even if conditions aren't perfect. Do you want to be the employer who provides stability? Then keep hiring, even if growth forecasts are unclear. Values-driven decisions during uncertainty often turn out to be the right business decisions too.

What This Means For You

First: Stop waiting for the "right time." In volatile conditions, there is no right time. There's only now. Make decisions with the best information you have, then adjust as you learn more. Waiting for perfect clarity means watching opportunities pass while you're standing still.

Second: Make your bets smaller and reversible. Can't commit to the full expansion? Do phase one. Can't hire five people? Hire two and use contractors for the rest. Can't stock six months of inventory? Stock three. The goal isn't perfect planning—it's continuous movement with built-in flexibility.

Third: Recognize that your advantage is moving with less information. Big businesses need certainty before they can act. You don't. That speed, that ability to make decisions and adjust quickly—that's not a weakness. In uncertain times, it's your competitive edge.

The businesses capturing market share right now aren't the ones with the best forecasts about tariffs or policy or macro trends. They're the ones who kept talking to customers, kept investing in what makes them different, and kept moving forward while everyone else froze waiting for clarity.

Uncertainty rewards action, not patience. When volatility becomes the norm, waiting for the perfect moment is just another word for standing still. The opportunity cost compounds every month you spend waiting. And in a year, you won't regret the imperfect actions you took—you'll regret the opportunities you missed while you were waiting for conditions that never materialized.

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